Cyclical Stocks
Cyclical stocks tend to be most influenced by economic cycles. In this guide, we explain what they are and how they work. We also provide examples of top companies across various industries to inform investing decisions. Find out how to start trading cyclical stocks.
Top Brokers For Investing In Cyclical Stocks for United States
What are Cyclical Stocks?
Cyclical stocks are equities that are impacted by significant economic cycles. They are essentially products and services that consumers buy more of during a market boom and less of during a recession.
Thankfully, it is easy to identify cyclical stocks without pouring through historical data. They are defined by their discretionary nature. The discretionary income (spare income) consumers have during a boom is usually higher, thus pumping the stock price. During a recession, discretionary income falls, which brings the value of the stock down.
Categories
There are generally three types of cyclical stocks available: durables, nondurables, and services.
Durables
Durables are physical goods that last longer than three years after being purchased. Automobiles, furniture, and electronics fall into this category. Examples of companies that manufacture durables include Toyota Motor (TM), American Woodmark Corporation (AMWD), Apple (AAPL), NIO (NIO), and Purple Innovation (PRPL).
Durables are usually high-ticket items consumers buy with discretionary income. When consumers don’t have disposable income, they reduce or stop buying durables and instead use older products for longer.
Durable cyclical stocks are one of the first signs of an economic upswing or downturn. And importantly, the variation in sales of durable consumer products serves as a predictor of future economic conditions.
Nondurables
Nondurables are low-cost items with a lifespan of less than three years. They can include clothing, footwear, food, fuel, make-up, personal care products, and other soft goods.
Examples of companies that manufacture or sell nondurables include Nike (NKE), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), TJX (TJX), Kroger (KR), and Darling Ingredients (DAR).
Services
Services that are directly impacted by changes in consumer expenditure belong in this category. These can include taxi services, restaurants, hotels, airlines, cruise ships, entertainment, and media streaming companies.
Examples of companies and popular cyclical stocks that provide these services include Uber (UBER), Lyft (LYFT), Jack In The Box (JACK), Carnival Corporation (CCL), Marriott International (MAR), Sun Country Airlines Holdings (SNCY), Walt Disney (DIS), and Netflix (NFLX).
Cyclical vs Non-Cyclical Stocks
Cyclical stocks are considered more volatile than non-cyclical equities, which tend to be more stable during economic downturns. Non-cyclical stocks are composed of essential products and services consumers buy regardless of the market cycle, such as utilities, food staples, basic cleaning and hygiene supplies. These stocks are often from corporations that pay out dividends on a regular basis.
Cyclical equities rally during an economic boom while non-cyclical shares usually beat the market no matter the economic cycle, even during recessions. With that said, they generally experience smaller price swings. As a result, smart traders diversify their investment portfolios with both types to ensure long-term growth and low volatility. Non-cyclical stocks can also help hedge against the lows cyclical equities incur during a financial downturn.
Examples of non-cyclical stocks include:
- Utility and necessity service providers – AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Vodafone (VOD), General Electric (GE), Canadian Solar (SCIQ), and FedEx (FDX)
- Food staples providers – Walmart (WMT), Coca-Cola (KO), Campbell’s Soup Co. (CPB), PepsiCo (PEP), Kraft Heinz (KHC) and Tesco (TSCO)
- Basic cleaning and hygiene products manufacturers – Procter and Gamble (PG), Unilever (ULVR), Reckitt Benckiser (RKT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and United Utilities (UU)
- Healthcare providers – Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA), AstraZeneca (AZN), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Novo Nordisk (NVO)
- Tobacco – British American Tobacco (BATS), Imperial Brands (IMB) and Altria (MO)
Note, some of the major retailers, such as Walmart (WMT), because of the vast array of products they sell, can fall into both categories. They are usually better protected against erratic market movements. And whilst Walmart (WMT) is generally considered a defensive stock, it also sells products that are discretionary in nature.
Cyclical ETFs
Traders can also invest in cyclical stocks through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are essentially baskets of securities that you can buy and sell. Popular examples include:
- ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN)
- Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR)
- Invesco Dynamic Leisure & Entertainment ETF (PEJ)
- Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (FDIS)
- Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY)
- Dow Jones U.S. Restaurants & Bars Index (DJUSRU)
- Invesco S&P 500® Equal Wt Cnsm Disc ETF (RCD)
- SPDR® S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB)
- Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY)
Pros & Cons of Trading Cyclical Stocks
Advantages
If bought before a market boom, cyclical stocks can offer significant growth once the market picks up. They usually lead to notable profits months before the economy begins recovering.
They also serve as a reflection of the business cycle and the prevailing emotions in the economy. By thoroughly analyzing the movement of cyclical equities, investors can predict where the economy is heading.
Disadvantages
With major rises come major falls, which can occur during a recession. As a result, the high volatility of cyclical stocks can be a disadvantage for investors with a low-risk appetite. Sometimes they even deviate significantly below the expected benchmark. As a result, careful planning and analysis are required with such equities, especially when timing a buy-in.
Final Thoughts
Cyclical stocks grow and fall in tandem with market cycles. Because of the often consistent movement with economic cycles, speculative investors can predict the value of particular stocks. Importantly, traders generally acquire shares at the bottom of the market cycle and sell them at the top. The ‘buy low, sell high’ principle.
Of course, prudence is needed when it comes to timing entry and exit points. It’s usually hard to predict the exact timing of lows and highs. But despite the risks, cyclical shares can prove a useful addition to diverse portfolios, especially when hedged with defensive stocks.
FAQ
How Do You Know If A Stock Is Cyclical?
Think of consumer discretionary income (the spare income consumers are left with after paying for bills and necessities – spending money). In a recession, consumers cut budgets and are inclined to focus on necessities. In a booming economy, consumers are more relaxed with their expenditure and can afford to splurge on a new designer bag or go on an expensive holiday, for example.
Are Cyclical Stocks Value Stocks?
Cyclical, non-cyclical, value, and growth are separate terms for defining and analyzing stocks from different points of view. Cyclical and non-cyclical refer to the motion of the stock in relation to the economy. Growth means the potential of a stock to outperform the market in the long run. Value describes stocks that are trading below their worth.
What Are Examples Of Cyclical Stocks?
Cyclical stocks can span a range of industries: car manufacturers, luxury goods brands, airlines, cruise ship holiday companies, hotels, restaurants, furniture stores, clothing stores, electronics, real estate and banks. Examples of good quality stocks include: Boeing (BA), ASOS Group (ASC), InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG), Michelin (ML), and Deutsche Bank (DBK).
When Should I Buy Cyclical Stocks?
Cyclical stocks and interest rates have a close relationship. It is often best to buy when interest rates are falling. Of course, careful analysis before buying is imperative. As part of portfolios, investors can diversify by using cyclical shares to take advantage of market booms, though they should be careful about the size of their position as they are known for taking a serious tumble with economic downturns.
Why Do Investors Buy Cyclical Stocks?
Due to potentially high returns, cyclical stocks can be an appealing investment opportunity. These equities perform best when the economy is on an upswing. They also have greater growth potential compared to defensive stocks.